2024 Recession 2024 - Key Points. Jeffrey Gundlach believes interest rates are about to trend lower as the economy deteriorates further and tips into a recession next year. The Federal …

 
Output set to contract as soon as Q4 and continue shrinking during the crucial 2024 election year, ... Deutsche Bank’s top minds put U.S. recession chance near 100%—and say avoiding a hard .... Recession 2024

A recession is a period of time that lasts more than a few months where the economy gets significantly worse; a depression is defined as a severe recession where things plummet dramatically. A recession does not always lead to a depression,...Recent economic data has been strong, but some experts expect the US to enter a recession in 2024. Boy_Anupong/Getty Images Inflation is falling, but some risks remain for the US economy. High...The National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET) is an important examination for students aspiring to pursue a career in the field of medicine. With NEET 2024 on the horizon, it is crucial for students to understand the syllabus and prepar...Economists raised their US growth projections through early 2024 and trimmed recession odds to a one-year low as consumers continue to spend. The economy probably expanded at an annualized 3.5% ...That figure is consistent with the “short and shallow” recession the Board expects during the first half of 2024. High prices also remain a worry for many consumers — even though the year ...The Canadian-born Duke professor says that the Fed risks driving the U.S. economy into recession because it has achieved its goal of taming inflation, which peaked at around 9% in 2022, and isn ...What they're saying: Goldman Sachs economists write in the bank's new outlook that "2024 should cement the notion that the global economy has escaped the …That figure is consistent with the “short and shallow” recession the Board expects during the first half of 2024. High prices also remain a worry for many consumers — even though the year ...Jul 10, 2023 · The reason why is because the U.S. Treasury yield curve is strongly inverted. Ten-year U.S. government bonds currently yield more than 1.5% less than 3-month bills. We haven’t seen such a large ... Price target. 409.17 0.00 0.00%. The 43 analysts offering 1 year price forecasts for MSFT have a max estimate of — and a min estimate of —.President Joe Biden 's administration appears on track to avoid an economic recession in 2024, new data shows. Despite fears of an economic downturn, new data from Bank of America 's (BofA) Global ...Last modified on Fri 26 May 2023 13.56 EDT. Rishi Sunak has been warned the UK economy could be in recession next year as stubbornly high inflation pushes interest rates to more than 5% before the ...The bank now expects “a major recession” in late 2023 to early 2024, according to a Tuesday note to investors titled “Why the coming recession will be worse than expected.”. Although the ...As we approach a new year, it’s time to start planning and organizing our schedules. One essential tool for staying on top of your game is a calendar. When it comes to traditional calendars, wall calendars are still a popular choice for man...A recession is generally considered a decline in economic activity over a certain period of time. ... 2023-2024 winter weather forecast: Here’s what Canadians can expect.A final fragility is America’s hyper-partisan politics. A recession would probably strike by the end of 2024, colliding with campaigning for the presidential election. If the economy is ...Dougherty predicted at a finance conference this week that while the worst of inflation is behind us, a recession still looms for the second half of 2024. "Going from 9% to 4%, that was always going to be easy," Dougherty said, predicting that the Fed's rate cuts will trigger a mild recession. He added that this is a "normal part of the economy ...In a 2024 Colorado Business Economic Outlook released on Monday, a group of researchers with the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado Boulder predicted that the state will add a ...The New York Federal Reserve model gives a two in three chance of a recession by July 2024. That’s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed ...Jul 12, 2023 · Consumers appear OK. They still have $533 billion in extra savings built up during the pandemic. Their cash balances have been dwindling, but should still last well into 2024. Delinquencies on ... While India may bear an output loss of 7.8 per cent in 2023, the Euro area is expected to lose 5.1 per cent, China 5.7 per cent, the U.K. 6.8 per cent, and Russia may bear 12.6 per cent output loss. Rising interest rates, weakening of currencies, mounting public debt — and all these factors raising food and fuel prices — have introduced ...Nov 29, 2023 · THE TELL. S&P 500 earnings can turn higher in 2024 even with lingering macroeconomic concerns that have some economists anticipating a recession next year, according to equity analysts in ... Economists raised their US growth projections through early 2024 and trimmed recession odds to a one-year low as consumers continue to spend. The economy probably expanded at an annualized 3.5% ...1 day ago · The bank expects the S&P 500 to rise about 10% in 2024 to 5,100, and if the economy dodges a recession, the gains could nearly double to about 19% in its bull-case scenario. More for You Recent world events like the pandemic, war in Ukraine and fuel shortages have led economic experts to believe a recession may occur soon. The Federal Reserve estimates the one-year-ahead recession ...Jun 5, 2023 · Zandi sees a one in three chance of a recession this year, but that rises to “uncomfortably high” odds of 50/50 in 2024. Still, there is nothing about the latest jobs reports that signal an ... Nov 30, 2023 · The US economy is currently doing well, with recent GDP data showing growth and a tight job market. A recession has been avoided in 2023. But what about 2024? I look at 4 key indicators that can ... The Fed tamed inflation without also sparking a recession, but dangers still loom ... Zillow is a full-blown housing market bull—predicting that U.S. home prices will jump 6.5% by July 2024 by ...Sep 5, 2023 · That’s basically in-line with the historical average chance of a recession on any given year. It’s also down from the Wall Street bank’s prior forecast of 20% and well below its 35% ... Overall, growth is forecast to increase to 0.8% in 2024 and to 1.2% in 2025. ... At the same time, the job vacancy rate has been receding, albeit remaining at high levels. Even if softening somewhat, the labour market is expected to remain tight as ageing continues to weigh on labour supply. In the first half of 2023, wages were 6.1% higher ...UBS expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by as much as 275 basis points in 2024, almost four times the market consensus, as the world's largest economy tips into recession.. In ...Key trends that will shape the co-working space in India in 2024 Home Loan Rate Dynamics: Navigating India’s property finance climate Housing sales rise by 22% in …10 Recession Stocks to Buy. These were the 10 most undervalued stocks as of May 5, 2023, that Morningstar’s analysts cover and fit our definition of recession-resistant. GSK GSK. Roche Holdings ...In a research report published Monday night, Goldman Sachs lowered its estimated chance of a US recession over the next 12 months to just 15%. That’s basically in-line with the historical ...Sara Devereux, the global head of fixed income at Vanguard's Investment Management Group, told CNBC's Bob Pisani in an interview Friday that the U.S. is still likely to fall into a recession in 2024.A mild recession will likely last for the first-half of 2024 as the rolling downturn spreads through other areas in the economy, Banks said, estimating a 1%-1.5% slowdown in GDP for the first and ...The latest forecasts could be a boost for President Joe Biden, who would bear the brunt of the political fallout if a recession arrives before the 2024 election. How the economy fares over the ...Aug 8, 2023 · The NIESR said there was an even chance the economy would contract by the end of 2023 and roughly a 60% risk of a recession by the end of 2024. The NIESR’s deputy director for macroeconomic ... Recession will hit the US in 2024 – so get ready for massive interest-rate cuts, UBS says. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by an eye-popping ... Study Highlights Need for Policies to Curb Inflation Without Exacerbating Recession Risk. WASHINGTON, September 15, 2022—As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023 and a string of financial crises in emerging market and …Recent economic data has been strong, but some experts expect the US to enter a recession in 2024. Boy_Anupong/Getty Images Inflation is falling, but some risks remain for the US economy. High...Still even on current data, a 2024 recession might be argued to be more likely than not. The main concern is that as a recently developed indicator, it is necessarily fitted to historical data.The U.S. will enter a downturn in the fourth quarter, followed by a “year of contraction and a European recession in 2024,” according to HSBC Asset Management. In its midyear outlook, the ...What they're saying: Goldman Sachs economists write in the bank's new outlook that "2024 should cement the notion that the global economy has escaped the post- [Great Financial Crisis] environment of low inflation, zero policy rates and negative real yields." Goldman's team is on the more optimistic side of the ledger, seeing only a 15% chance ...The bank now expects “a major recession” in late 2023 to early 2024, according to a Tuesday note to investors titled “Why the coming recession will be worse than expected.”. Although the ...Study Highlights Need for Policies to Curb Inflation Without Exacerbating Recession Risk. WASHINGTON, September 15, 2022—As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023 and a string of financial crises in emerging market and …Top 10 trades of 2024 That said, the outlook isn't entirely negative. A slowdown for credit, crude, and consumers could kick off bearish positioning, recession-level profits, and policy easing in ...A mild recession could hit the U.S. in the first half of 2024, Deutsche Bank analysts said in a new global outlook Monday, pointing toward softening economic data. The lagged impact of interest ...Sep 12, 2023 · Renowned economist Steve Hanke says the sharp decline in money supply will drag the U.S. into a recession in the first half of 2024. U.S money supply exploded during the pandemic as the government ... The US economy will slip into recession next year – and that'll lead to the Federal Reserve bringing in steep interest-rate cuts, according to one top European bank.Consumers appear OK. They still have $533 billion in extra savings built up during the pandemic. Their cash balances have been dwindling, but should still last well into 2024. Delinquencies on ...The U.S. will enter a downturn in the fourth quarter, followed by a “year of contraction and a European recession in 2024,” according to HSBC Asset Management. In its midyear outlook, the ...That figure is consistent with the “short and shallow” recession the Board expects during the first half of 2024. High prices also remain a worry for many consumers — even though the year ...November 21, 2023 at 12:34 PM. Strategists are all in agreement that interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are coming in 2024 — they just can't agree on when exactly. The bond market is ...Dougherty predicted at a finance conference this week that while the worst of inflation is behind us, a recession still looms for the second half of 2024. "Going from 9% to 4%, that was always going to be easy," Dougherty said, predicting that the Fed's rate cuts will trigger a mild recession. He added that this is a "normal part of the economy ...May 26, 2023 · Last modified on Fri 26 May 2023 13.56 EDT. Rishi Sunak has been warned the UK economy could be in recession next year as stubbornly high inflation pushes interest rates to more than 5% before the ... THE TELL. S&P 500 earnings can turn higher in 2024 even with lingering macroeconomic concerns that have some economists anticipating a recession next year, according to equity analysts in ...While India may bear an output loss of 7.8 per cent in 2023, the Euro area is expected to lose 5.1 per cent, China 5.7 per cent, the U.K. 6.8 per cent, and Russia may bear 12.6 per cent output loss. Rising interest rates, weakening of currencies, mounting public debt — and all these factors raising food and fuel prices — have introduced ...Aug 5, 2023 · Recession likely in 2024. Dr. Bill Conerly. Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economic growth was decent in the second quarter at 2.0%, but that does not mean we’re out of ... Jun 14, 2022 · In a pessimistic scenario—where a recession collides with higher input costs and rising interest rates— s & p, a rating agency, forecasts that about 6% of speculative-grade corporate bonds ... Some say the recession is already here. The weak second-quarter GDP left Oxford Economics more convinced that the economy has slipped into a moderate recession that will last until early 2024. They have lowered their growth forecasts for Canada to 0.7 per cent in 2023 and a contraction of -0.5 per cent in 2024. Story continues below.By October 2024, it is projected that there is probability of 46.11 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This is a decrease from the projection of the ...In a pessimistic scenario—where a recession collides with higher input costs and rising interest rates— s & p, a rating agency, forecasts that about 6% of speculative-grade corporate bonds ...In a research report published Monday night, Goldman Sachs lowered its estimated chance of a US recession over the next 12 months to just 15%. That’s basically in-line with the historical ...The US economy is in for a sharp slowdown in 2024 as a closely watched survey of top economists foresees stubbornly high inflation, a rise in unemployment and a 50% chance of recession.A later recession is most likely, one beginning in late 2023 or early 2024. Predictions of recession timing are much more difficult than the eventual arrival of recession, so this forecast should ...The Fed’s latest forecast is for the jobless rate to edge higher from 3.8% in 2023 to 4.1% in 2024, That’s a continuation of the current trend, and one that would see the US skirting a recession.Elon Musk says we’re already in a recession that could last until spring 2024, and only the strong will survive. BY Christiaan Hetzner. October 21, 2022, 4:58 AM PDT. Elon Musk believes economic ...The New York Federal Reserve model gives a two in three chance of a recession by July 2024. That’s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed ...Jul 12, 2023 · Key recession forecasts from Bankrate’s Economic Indicator survey. Experts put the odds of a recession by July 2024 at 59 percent, suggesting the U.S. economy has a near 3-in-5 chance of ... 9 thg 8, 2023 ... The National Institute of Economic & Social Research said in its main forecast that the economy will avoid a recession – defined by two or more ...The U.S. will enter a downturn in the fourth quarter, followed by a “year of contraction and a European recession in 2024,” according to HSBC Asset Management. In its midyear outlook, the ...The Bank of England has warned the UK risked being plunged into the longest recession in 100 years after it pushed up the cost of borrowing to 3% in the biggest single interest rate rise since ...Nov 27, 2023 · President Joe Biden 's administration appears on track to avoid an economic recession in 2024, new data shows. Despite fears of an economic downturn, new data from Bank of America 's (BofA) Global ... Aug 13, 2023 · An increasing number of economists — including the Federal Reserve’s own staff — are predicting the US will escape a recession, though it’ll be well into 2024 before anyone can be sure of it. The latest forecasts could be a boost for President Joe Biden, who would bear the brunt of the political fallout if a recession arrives before the 2024 election. How the economy fares over the ...In a 2024 Colorado Business Economic Outlook released on Monday, a group of researchers with the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado Boulder predicted that the state will add a ...THE TELL. S&P 500 earnings can turn higher in 2024 even with lingering macroeconomic concerns that have some economists anticipating a recession next year, according to equity analysts in ...Here are six reasons why a recession remains Bloomberg Economics’ base case. They range from the wiring of the human brain and the mechanics of monetary policy, to strikes, higher oil prices and ...16 thg 10, 2023 ... AUSTIN, Texas — American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello said the U.S. economy still runs the risk of sliding into a ...Tight credit, work-from-home trends, energy-hungry data centers and more color the horizon for commercial real estate as we enter 2024. Glenn Fydenkevez Nov. 30, 2023 The Best 5-Star ETFs to BuyAre you ready for a thrilling adventure on the high seas? Look no further than Holland America Cruises 2024. With their diverse itineraries, luxurious accommodations, and top-notch service, Holland America Cruises is the perfect choice for ...Recession is likely in 2024 because companies face a ‘huge shock’ of having to refinance debt at higher interest rates, top strategist warns. BY Emily Graffeo, Anya Andrianova and Bloomberg.“If that does happen, mortgage rates will tick down and we should see a pretty strong housing rebound in 2024 – in spring 2024,” he says. The severity of a recession could impact how much the housing market reacts. Reynolds says a more run-of-the-mill recession, neither mild nor severe, may lead to a larger correction of home …Renowned economist Steve Hanke says the sharp decline in money supply will drag the U.S. into a recession in the first half of 2024. U.S money supply exploded during the pandemic as the government ...The National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET) is an important examination for students aspiring to pursue a career in the field of medicine. With NEET 2024 on the horizon, it is crucial for students to understand the syllabus and prepar...Zandi sees a one in three chance of a recession this year, but that rises to “uncomfortably high” odds of 50/50 in 2024. Still, there is nothing about the latest jobs reports that signal an ...Recession 2024

In July, the Federal Reserve staff abandoned its earlier 2024 recession forecast, signaling a significant shift. However, the yield curve, measured by the 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates, still .... Recession 2024

recession 2024

The most likely economic scenario is a 'boil the frog' recession featuring a synchronized global hard landing in 2024, JPMorgan says. Jennifer Sor. AP. The US is most likely headed for a "boil the ...Callie Cox, U.S. investment analyst at eToro, says investors should also take advantage of a potential recession in 2023 and prepare their portfolios for the light at the end of the tunnel in 2024 ...The UK is beginning 2023 on the brink of recession as households and businesses ... The Bank of England expects the recession to last for at least the whole of 2023 and the first half of 2024 ...What is a recession? In normal times, a country's economy grows. People's incomes tend to rise as the value of the goods and services the country produces - its Gross Domestic Product (GDP ... Oct 1, 2023 · Here are six reasons why a recession remains Bloomberg Economics’ base case. They range from the wiring of the human brain and the mechanics of monetary policy, to strikes, higher oil prices and ... Under terms of the bill, anyone who is a current Social Security recipient, or who will turn 62 in 2023, would receive an extra $200 in each monthly check. Meaning, Social Security recipients could get an additional $2,400 a year in benefits if the bill wins approval — something seniors would no doubt welcome as inflation wipes out their ...In a 2024 Colorado Business Economic Outlook released on Monday, a group of researchers with the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado Boulder predicted that the state will add a ...The least developed countries are forecast to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2023 and 5.2 per cent in 2024, far below the seven per cent growth target set in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Global trade remains under pressure due to geopolitical tensions, weakening global demand and tighter monetary and fiscal policies. The volume of ...A recession is defined as when a country's economy shrinks for two three-month periods - or quarters - in a row. Typically, companies make less money, pay falls and unemployment rises.Are you ready for a thrilling adventure on the high seas? Look no further than Holland America Cruises 2024. With their diverse itineraries, luxurious accommodations, and top-notch service, Holland America Cruises is the perfect choice for ...Most economists said the economy would at least return to growth by the end of the year as inflation ebbs, with Paul Dales, at the consultancy Capital Economics, asserting: “2024 will be much ...November 21, 2023 at 12:34 PM. Strategists are all in agreement that interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are coming in 2024 — they just can't agree on when exactly. The bond market is ...Sep 12, 2023 · Renowned economist Steve Hanke says the sharp decline in money supply will drag the U.S. into a recession in the first half of 2024. U.S money supply exploded during the pandemic as the government ... The US economy is in for a sharp slowdown in 2024 as a closely watched survey of top economists foresees stubbornly high inflation, a rise in unemployment and a 50% chance of recession. A slew of ...Jun 27, 2023 · The U.S. will enter a downturn in the fourth quarter, followed by a “year of contraction and a European recession in 2024,” according to HSBC Asset Management. In its midyear outlook, the ... Autodesk AutoCAD LT 2024 is the latest version of the popular computer-aided design (CAD) software. Packed with new features and updates, this release brings even more efficiency and precision to your design workflow.The recession started with the GDP drop in the second quarter of 2023, and it is expected to end in the first quarter of 2024, with a 1.5 per cent peak-to-trough decrease in GDP.Sep 24, 2023 · The first is that it usually takes about a year and a half for the full impact of interest rate changes to get absorbed into the economy. The Bank of Canada began its rate-hiking cycle 17 months ... Here’s an overview of some principal types of alternative investments, although it’s worth noting that this list is far from exhaustive. 1. Private equity. Private equity involves investing in ...DoubleLine’s Gundlach says interest rates are going to fall as recession arrives early 2024. Published Wed, Nov 1 2023 3:48 PM EDT Updated Wed, Nov 1 2023 9:25 PM EDT. Yun Li @YunLi626.The world economy has gone through four major downturns over the past seven decades, in 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. Recessions typically last for about a year in advanced economies, according to the IMF. The NBER’s data supports this: from 1945 to 2009, the average recession lasted 11 months.That’s basically in-line with the historical average chance of a recession on any given year. It’s also down from the Wall Street bank’s prior forecast of 20% and well below its 35% ...What they're saying: Goldman Sachs economists write in the bank's new outlook that "2024 should cement the notion that the global economy has escaped the …The Super Bowl is one of the most anticipated sporting events in the world, attracting millions of viewers and fans alike. Each year, a different city hosts this iconic event, and in 2024, the Super Bowl will be held at the University of Ph...President Joe Biden 's administration appears on track to avoid an economic recession in 2024, new data shows. Despite fears of an economic downturn, new data from Bank of America 's (BofA) Global ...3 thg 9, 2023 ... The now strong chance that the US economy will avoid a recession this year “means the Fed will keep rates higher for longer to fully quell ...If the U.S. does slip into a recession sometime during what’s left of 2023 or in early 2024, there’s no reason for investors to panic. First off, historically speaking, recessions don’t last ...Oct 5, 2023 · For well over a year now, I have argued that the US is able to avoid the 2023 recession that many were repeatedly calling. I am now less confident about what’s in store for 2024 given how the ... The world economy has gone through four major downturns over the past seven decades, in 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. Recessions typically last for about a year in advanced economies, according to the IMF. The NBER’s data supports this: from 1945 to 2009, the average recession lasted 11 months.The US economy is currently doing well, with recent GDP data showing growth and a tight job market. A recession has been avoided in 2023. But what about 2024? I look at 4 key indicators that can ...Nov 9, 2023 · What they're saying: Goldman Sachs economists write in the bank's new outlook that "2024 should cement the notion that the global economy has escaped the post- [Great Financial Crisis] environment of low inflation, zero policy rates and negative real yields." Goldman's team is on the more optimistic side of the ledger, seeing only a 15% chance ... The Fed’s latest forecast is for the jobless rate to edge higher from 3.8% in 2023 to 4.1% in 2024, That’s a continuation of the current trend, and one that would see the US skirting a recession.3 thg 9, 2023 ... The now strong chance that the US economy will avoid a recession this year “means the Fed will keep rates higher for longer to fully quell ...A mild recession will likely last for the first-half of 2024 as the rolling downturn spreads through other areas in the economy, Banks said, estimating a 1%-1.5% slowdown in GDP for the first and ... DoubleLine’s Gundlach says interest rates are going to fall as recession arrives early 2024. Published Wed, Nov 1 2023 3:48 PM EDT Updated Wed, Nov 1 2023 9:25 PM EDT. Yun Li @YunLi626.The Fed’s latest forecast is for the jobless rate to edge higher from 3.8% in 2023 to 4.1% in 2024, That’s a continuation of the current trend, and one that would see the US skirting a recession.The RBA expects the wage price index will end the year at 4.0% and ease back to 3.7% by the end of 2024. Those forecasts in August were for 4.1% and for 3.8%, respectively.Jan 20, 2023 · The early 1980s saw two recessions, the first lasting six months, from January 1980 to July 1980, and the second from July 1981 to November 1982, 16 months. The Great Recession of 2008 lasted from ... The most widely accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. According to a forecast by The Conference Board, U.S. real GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in the first quarter of 2022, down sharply from 6.9% growth in the last quarter of 2021. The White House is confident of strong GDP growth in 2022 despite ...There are eight major factors that could indicate a global recession in 2024: Sluggish Global Economic Growth One of the first warning signs of an impending …The Fed’s latest forecast is for the jobless rate to edge higher from 3.8% in 2023 to 4.1% in 2024, That’s a continuation of the current trend, and one that would see …Elon Musk says we’re already in a recession that could last until spring 2024, and only the strong will survive. BY Christiaan Hetzner. October 21, 2022, 4:58 AM PDT. Elon Musk believes economic ...What the latest GDP data tells us – Jun 30, 2023. Canada’s economy is showing signs of underlying strength as some consumers and businesses brush off recession fears, a flurry of data releases ...PepsiCo is the only stock on the best recession stocks list that has slightly underperformed the S&P 500 over the last decade. PepsiCo has averaged 12.1% annual gains, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF ...7 ngày trước ... The 2024 recession will be the worst we have ever seen, and it is important to start building wealth and preparing for the potential ...Renowned economist Steve Hanke says the sharp decline in money supply will drag the U.S. into a recession in the first half of 2024. U.S money supply exploded during the pandemic as the government ...Sep 12, 2023 · Renowned economist Steve Hanke says the sharp decline in money supply will drag the U.S. into a recession in the first half of 2024. U.S money supply exploded during the pandemic as the government ... A recession is a period of time that lasts more than a few months where the economy gets significantly worse; a depression is defined as a severe recession where things plummet dramatically. A recession does not always lead to a depression,...The bank now expects “a major recession” in late 2023 to early 2024, according to a Tuesday note to investors titled “Why the coming recession will be worse than expected.”. Although the ...The New York Federal Reserve model gives a two in three chance of a recession by July 2024. That’s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed .... Lincoln bicentennial pennies